(POS-46) Development of a Mathematical Model for Nuclear Weapon Changes Based on Historical Data

Seung Min Woo – Assistant Professor, KyungHee University

Over the past 80 years, Nuclear program has continued unabated, with several nations either possessing or attempting to develop nuclear weapons. While various studies on nuclear weapon strategies or nuclear weapons security have been conducted, there has been a lack of research that mathematically analyzes the dominant factors influencing changes in the number of nuclear weapons based on accumulated historical data. Accordingly, this study aims to analyze the variations in nuclear weapons from historical perspective and propose a mathematical model that systematically explains these changes.
A key element of this study is the development of governing equation modeled to mathematically describe the production and reduction of nuclear weapons. The governing equation consists of two main components: the production term and the loss term.
The production term includes factors such as the completion of nuclear facilities and the economic capacity of the country, varying significantly across periods and countries.
The loss term encompasses factors such as disarmament, technical failure, export, and usage of nuclear weapons, each of which also exerts different impacts depending on the period and the country.
Based on this framework, the study utilized historical data on changes in U.S. nuclear weapon stockpiles to evaluate the coefficients corresponding to each term. These coefficients were used to analyze trends in how changes in the nuclear weapons stockpile were influenced by non-proliferation-related events or various historical incidents.
The findings of this study are expected to serve as valuable resources for designing future predictive models of nuclear weapon changes or for informing policy decisions.